Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

Avalanche hazard will be rising over Thursday as a series of cold fronts begin to track over the region.

Reactive wind and storm slab are likely to build in many areas above 1800m.

Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5

    Over 100cm of new snow is expected on the Divide above 1800m, perhaps 40cm in eastern terrain, over the next 12 -24 hours. Winds will be gale NW, trending moderate W late Thursday. Expect reactive wind and storm slab to build on and around SE aspects initially above 1800m, but lowering to 1400m later in the day. The new snow will be landing on a variety of snow surfaces; from crust to old stiff windslab and shallow powder in sheltered areas. Of particular concern is how the new snow will bond to the widespread (below 1800m) rain crust.

    The avalanche hazard will likely move to high over Thursday.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Nothing observed recently.

Current Snowpack Conditions

A few shallow snowfalls, 5cm overnight on Tuesday and 10cm early last weekend, overlie snowfall from earlier in last week. This was extensively distributed by gale NW and SW winds, leaving firm windpressed drifts and slick crusts in more exposed areas. Below around 1800m the snowpack is capped with a hard rain crust. Faceting has been observed in shallow snowpack areas in the Malte Brun range as well as a buried graupel layer that appears un-reactive to snowpack tests. The lower snowpack appears to be well bonded, but we are continuing to monitor crust facet laminates in the lower pack in the eastern part of the forecast area. Avalanche hazard will be rising over the next 24 hours as a series of fronts cross the region.

Mountain Weather

Forecast

Rain, heavy in the evening. Snow lowering to 1500 metres in the evening.

Wind at 1000 metres

Northwesterly 55 km/h rising to gale 80 km/h in the afternoon.

Wind at 2000 metres

Northwesterly 30 km/h rising to severe gale 90 km/h in the morning.

Wind at 3000 metres

Northwesterly 50 km/h rising to severe gale 100 km/h in the afternoon.

Freezing level

1700 metres rising to 2000 metres in the evening.

Sliding Danger

Exposed areas have been stripped back to a slick crust by strong NW and SW winds. Below 1800m there are icy rain crusts. Take an ice axe and crampons( and the knowledge to use them) for any travel above the snowline.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered