Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 weeks ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Heavy snow is forecast with strong North East to North West winds.

Conditions are likely to change rapidly

Alpine Travel is not advised

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Wind Slabs are likely to be forming on a wide range of old snow surfaces - the bonding to which is suspect.Avoid all steep terrain near ridgcrest or convex roll features where wind loading or stiff wind driven snow is found

  • Storm Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    Storm slab may exists in wind sheltered areas if precipitation amounts increase. Watch for signs of cracking in soft new snow and be wary of large mid slope convex roll features and unsupported slopes.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    Loose wet avalanching may occur below 1700m before the forecast drop in the freezing level in the morning.Caution if you notice signs of loose wet roller balling or a wet unsupportive snowpack

Recent Avalanche Activity

08/08 - no Activity seen or reported in past 48hrs

Current Snowpack Conditions

High Variation in the snowpack from west to east with a uncertain amount of new snow arriving over the 9th of August

Up to the evening of the 8th On or near the divide we expect that there has been some new snow in the past 48hrs. Further to the east the snowpack surface is varied from old hard windslab, to melt freeze crust or Sastrugi. In places near surface faceted crystals may still be present beneath Meltfreeze crusts or where old windslab is thin.Overall the lower pack is well bonded

Mountain Weather

Rain, heavy until evening. Snow lowering to 1200 metres in the afternoon.

Wind at 1000 metres

Northeasterly 50 km/h, turning westerly gale 65 km/h in the morning.

Wind at 2000 metres

Northeasterly gale 80 km/h turning northwesterly gale 85 km/h in the morning, then easing to gale 65 km/h in the evening.

Wind at 3000 metres

Northeasterly gale 80 km/h turning northwesterly gale 85 km/h in the morning.

Freezing level

1900 metres, lowering to 1600 metres in the morning.

Sliding Danger

Ridgelines and exposed areas facing the NW to W are likely to remain scoured back to slick crusts or rock in places. Crampons and an ice axe are a good idea for general travel at this time

Forecast Confidence

Low

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.
  • We are uncertain due to the timing of the incoming weather system.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered