Strong sunshine will weaken the snowpack on solar aspects today. It may also cause cornices to fail. Be aware of what is above you; the slopes or cornices may be getting cooked. Minimize your exposure to overhead hazards.
Weather Forecast
A ridge of high pressure will result in strong solar today. Freezing levels may rise to 1900m, and temperatures in the alpine might get above zero. These factors will weaken the snowpack. On Monday, a cold front will bring increasing cloud and flurries. This will be followed by a warm front on Tuesday with thickening cloud and up to 15cm of snow.
Snowpack Summary
40cm of recent snow is settling and overlies a sun crust on steep solar aspects. Another layer down 80cm consists of stellar's and a sun crust on steep solar aspects. These layers have been reactive to ski cutting on steep unsupported features in Rogers Pass, and in the surrounding region failed causing several human triggered size 2 avalanches.
Avalanche Summary
Yesterday, a few size 2 avalanches were triggered on southerly aspects during brief periods of sunshine. Skiers triggered size 1.5 slab avalanches on the SE face of 8812. Recent natural avalanches on N and E aspects have been size 2-2.5 and triggered by loading due to steady moderate SW winds.Today, strong solar will trigger natural avalanches.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.