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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 17th, 2016–Mar 18th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Don't let the beautiful day lure you into complacency. Although temperatures are expected to stay cool, the strong solar packs a punch. Stay vigilant. If avalanches are triggered they are likely to be BIG!

Weather Forecast

Today should be mostly sunny. Alpine temps are expected to reach -5 with light N'ly winds hopefully helping to keep the snowpack cool. Although the strong solar may still destabilize the snowpack. Friday and Saturday are expected to be a mix of sun and cloud, with freezing levels gradually rising to 1800m by Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Convective flurries over the past week have added to the storm slab, with 30-50cm overlying a crust on solar aspects. Persistent weak layers from February are down 70-120cm and are of most concern on solar aspects. On northerly aspects the snowpack has less layers of concern, although on lee features in the alpine buried windslabs may exist.

Avalanche Summary

There was less solar than expected yesterday, but when the sun peaked out it triggered small loose avalanches. In the region a size 2.5 avalanche was triggered by skiers on a S'ly aspect, failing on the crust down 1m. Size 2-4 natural avalanches occurred on S'ly aspects, while on N'ly aspects a few size 1.5-2 slabs occurred on windloaded features.

Confidence

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.