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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 15th, 2016–Nov 16th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

Glacier.

Many sticks and stones, that will break your bones, are thinly buried by the early season snowpack. The season is just beginning so many dangers lurk near the snow surface.

Weather Forecast

A short, intense front will move through Rogers Pass today, bringing 10-20cm of snow, moderate S-SW winds, and freezing levels rising to 1700m mid-day. Wednesday will see cooler temp's with scattered flurries.

Snowpack Summary

20-25cm of new snow covers a thin, near-isothermal snowpack. This new snow has seen wind effect, so soft slabs in lee features at tree-line and above are prevalent. Below 2000m, snow depths are less than 70cm with many early season hazards (rocks and trees) lurking at or just below the surface.

Avalanche Summary

One size 2 avalanche (24+ hrs), W aspect, tree-line elevation, observed on McGill Shoulder on Monday. The new snow covered the crown line, but it appeared to dig deep in to the isothermal, early season snow pack.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.