Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2024–Jan 11th, 2024

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Instead of going outside, how about a discussion, I'll start:

The forecast region is going into a deep freeze, probably for a week.

What will the extreme cold temperatures do to the snowpack? And, the hard question,

What will it take for the snowpack to recover from the cold?

Stay warm, friends. See you at the coffee shop!

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches were reported from the field today.

Snowpack Summary

10cm of recent snowfall has been redistributed by moderate winds again exposing ice, rocky ridges, and terrain features, in the Icefields. The snowpack is structurally weak, with mixed facets, a strong temperature gradient, and well-established depth hoar in the base. Sheltered areas have an average snow depth of ~45-75 cm. Foot pen to ground in most places.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Overnight:

Uncomfortably cold, temps falling to -33°C (feels like -46°C)

Thursday

Cloudy with sunny periods. Icefields high: -34°C. Slightly worse closer to town, -37°C.

The Mountain Weather Forecast is available at Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.