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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 6th, 2023–Dec 7th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended during periods of rapid loading. New slabs may rapidly form as rain switches to snow.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Many large (size 2) slab avalanches were triggered naturally over the past few days, and we expect that many more avalanche observations will be reported once the skies clear.

Looking forward, new storm slabs could form as the rain switches to snow.

Snowpack Summary

Rain will switch to snow, building a new storm slab that sits on wet snow. The extensive rain from the past few days likely wettened the upper snowpack and melted the weak layer of surface hoar previously found about 10 to 20 cm deep, though it may linger in isolated areas at high elevations.

The middle and base of the snowpack is expected to be wet, except for perhaps near the mountain tops where dry faceted snow may remain.

Snowpack depths are approximately 50 to 80 cm at treeline, which rapidly tapers with lower elevations.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with 15 to 25 cm of high-elevation snow and rain at lower elevations, southwest alpine wind 20 to 40 km/h, treeline temperature 0 °C, freezing level 2100 m dropping to 1700 m by morning.

Thursday

Cloudy with 15 to 25 cm of snow and locally higher amounts possible, southwest alpine wind 20 to 40 km/h, treeline temperature -5 °C, freezing level 1500 m.

Friday

Cloudy with 10 to 20 cm of early-morning snow then clearing, west alpine wind 10 to 20 km/h, treeline temperature -7 °C.

Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud with no precipitation, southwest alpine wind 20 km/h, treeline temperature -10 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.