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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2025–Feb 15th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Elkford West.

Avalanche Danger will be CONSIDERABLE in areas that received more than 20 cm of recent snow.

Start with conservative terrain and watch for signs of instability.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, several small size 1 loose dry and storm slab avalanches were triggered by riders in the Lizard Range.

On Thursday, a small naturally triggered wind slab 5 to 15 cm deep was observed in a fan feature in the Lizard Range.

If you head into the backcountry consider submitting a MIN post!

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of new storm snow is sitting on 30 to 70 cm of faceted old snow overlying a weak layer formed in late January. This weak layer is a crust on sun-exposed slopes and a layer of surface hoar on all other aspects. Exposed terrain in the alpine and treeline is variably wind-affected, creating a stiffer slab above the weak layer. In turn, the stiffer slab may be easier to trigger under the weight of a human. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled with no other layers of concern.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy with isolated flurries. 10 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -12 °C.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy. 15 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy with flurries up to 5 cm. 5 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -12 °C.

Monday

A mix of sun and clouds. 15 to 20 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep your guard up as storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Approach steep and open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, as buried surface hoar may exist.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind-affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.