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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2025–Jan 17th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal, Boundary, Stewart, Ningunsaw, Ningunsaw, Ningunsaw.

Deep instabilities are present and have produced large avalanches over the past few days.

Natural avalanches may taper but human triggering is likely.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday a widespread natural avalanche cycle continued. Large to very large avalanches were seen up to size 3.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow totals over the past few days range from 40 to 80 cm. Strong to extreme west through southwest wind has created widespread wind effect, with deeper deposits of snow on leeward slopes. Forecast-changing winds may start to load southerly aspects on Friday.

Down 70 to 120 cm a layer of surface hoar, facets, or a thin crust exists.

A persistent weak layer of surface hoar and facets overlying a crust is buried 120 to 150 cm deep. This layer remains reactive, producing large and dangerous avalanches.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy with few flurries. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 700 m.

Friday

Mostly sunny. 10 to 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Saturday

A mix of sun and cloud, possible flurries up to 5 cm. 10 to 25 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Sunday

A mix of sun and cloud. 10 to 20 km/h north ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • Avoid freshly wind-loaded terrain features.
  • Keep in mind that human triggering may persist as natural avalanches taper off.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.