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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 12th, 2021–Nov 13th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

The avalanche hazard will rise considerably over the next few days with the incoming storm! Early season hazards may be hiding just below the snow surface, where even a small avalanche could have severe consequences.

Weather Forecast

Saturday will be mainly cloudy with flurries, freezing levels could reach 1200m, with moderate to strong SW winds. A significant storm is forecasted on Sunday and Monday! On Sunday we could see ~40cm of new snow, warming temperatures and strong to extreme winds from the SW. Monday will be a similar day to Sunday but with slightly less new snow.

Snowpack Summary

Recent strong winds, new snow and warming temperatures has deposited fresh storm slabs in the Alpine and exposed areas of TL. Height of snow varies significantly with elevation from ~30cm @ Rogers Pass to ~175cm in the Alpine. There are 2 prominent crusts to date, the Nov 5th buried ~40cm and the October crust lies near the base of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity increased today (Friday) in the HWY corridor, and there are several MIN reports about the Cheops North paths. Avalanche activity will peak on Sun and Mon as Rogers Pass gets hammered by the next storm. Human triggered avalanches will be likely on Saturday in the Alpine and exposed areas of TL in steep unsupported terrain features.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.