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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 28th, 2021–Nov 29th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

It's all about that surface snow. If our persistently high freezing levels prevent a crust from forming, potential for wet loose avalanches in steep terrain will persist too.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: Cloudy with isolated showers. Moderate to strong southwest winds.

Monday: Cloudy. Light southwest winds. Treeline temperatures around +3 with freezing levels to 1750 metres.

Tuesday: Wet flurries transitioning to heavy rain in the afternoon; 20-30 mm accumulation. Moderate to strong southwest winds, increasing over the day and overnight. Treeline temperatures rising from around 0 to +4 over the day as freezing levels climb from 1400 to 2500 metres..

Wednesday: Rain; 20-30 mm accumulation. Strong south or southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +4.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches have been reported in the region and overall reports in the region remain limited. Be sure to post your observations to the Mountain Information Network!

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain has affected the snowpack at all elevations. With a bit of cooling over Sunday night we should see surface crust beginning to form and eliminate chances of wet loose avalanche activity. In areas where crust may fail to form (especially lower elevations), this potential could linger.

Average treeline snow depths are around 80-100 cm with much of treeline and all below treeline elevations still below threshold depths for avalanches.

Early season hazards such as rocks, stumps, and creeks are a concern below the alpine.

Terrain and Travel

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Avoid terrain traps where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.