Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Synopsis: Continued northwesterly flow will bring light pulses of precipitation to the region interspersed with some dry patches.Tuesday night: 2-5 cm new snow.Wednesday: light snow through the day, another 2-5 cm. Treeline temperatures should peak around -2C. Northwesterly winds gusting to 40 km/h.Thursday: Flurries. Freezing level rising to around 1400 m. Light northwesterly winds.Friday: Dry. Temperatures around -6C at treeline. Light northwesterly winds.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, there were a few, mostly loose snow avalanches on north-facing slopes at higher elevations. There was one small (size 1) human-triggered avalanche reported from 1500 m near valley bottom near a creek. I suspect this is the kind of place surface hoar (most likely the Jan 24th layer, buried 40 cm) would be well preserved. Another small human-triggered avalanche was reported from a north-facing slope in the alpine.
Snowpack Summary
Approximately 30 to 50 cm of recent storm snow overlies a weak layer comprising of surface hoar in shady locations, facets at higher elevations and a sun crust on solar aspects. The recent new snow sitting above this interface has been slowly consolidating from fresh powder into a more cohesive slab. A mid-pack surface hoar layer buried in early January is down around 90 cm, and is best preserved below approximately 1700 m. A freezing rain crust has been reported near the surface (it may now be buried by light snow) in the Monashees, particularly in areas close to Mabel Lake.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.