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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2023–Jan 4th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Use caution around wind-loaded areas at upper elevations.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches have been reported since a cycle of small storm slabs occurred on Friday Dec 31 (size 1 to 1.5).

Continue to support your backcountry community and please consider submitting a MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

30 to 40 cm of snow from last week is settling over a melt-freeze crust above 1000 m. A thin layer of facets could exist around this interface. Strong southerly winds have redistributed available snow into wind slabs on north and east aspects and cross-loading on others. Below 1000 m the snow surface could still be moist.

Terrain below treeline has limited or no coverage.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

A weak frontal system will bring 5 to 15 cm of snow above 500 m and rain below 500 m, 30 to 50 km/h wind from the southeast, treeline temperatures around -2 °C.

Wednesday

Cloudy with sunny breaks in the afternoon, no significant precipitation, 40 to 60 km/h wind from the southeast, freezing level fluctuating between 1000 and 1500 m in the afternoon with treeline temperatures hovering around 0 °C.

Thursday

Cloudy with 5 to 15 mm of mixed precipitation as freezing levels fluctuate between 1000 and 1500 m, 50 to 80 km/h wind from the southeast.

Friday

Stormy with 25 to 50 mm of precipitation with the heaviest accumulations on the west and south side of the island. Freezing levels climbing to 1200 m will likely results in mixed precipitation types at treeline and rain below 1000 m. 60 to 80 km/h wind from the southeast.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.