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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 14th, 2022–Dec 15th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Spring-like conditions in the alpine! Assess the upper snowpack for signs of instability as warm temperatures and sunny skies could destabilize the upper snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported.

Keep sharing your observations by submitting a MIN report! They are especially helpful in the early season when snowpack information can be limited.

Snowpack Summary

Surface: Generally remaining dry despite the high temperatures. Moist snow surfaces on southerly aspects.

Upper Snowpack: The upper snowpack is quickly settling into a cohesive slab with above freezing temperatures and sun.

Lower Snowpack: Various crusts near or on the ground. With a weak layer of facets and surface hoar buried in late November exists 10 to 30 cm above the ground.

Overall snow depths generally range from 100-140 cm in the alpine.

Weather Summary

Wednesday night

Generally clear skies with no precipitation. Alpine temperatures remain above freezing overnight, with freezing levels above mountain tops. Light northerly winds in the alpine.

Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud. Light to moderate northerly winds in the alpine. Freezing levels remain high, with highs around +5 C in the alpine. 

Friday

A mix of sun and cloud. Light to moderate northerly winds in the alpine. High freezing levels persist, with highs around +5 C in the alpine. 

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, with no precipitation. Light to moderate alpine winds. Freezing levels begin to drop, bringing below freezing temperatures to the alpine.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.