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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2023–Jan 17th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard, Moyie.

The weak basal snowpack continues to demand patience and diligent group management from backcountry travelers. A bit of new snow in the Fernie area hasn't done much to change that picture, but expect new slabs to form here if the wind starts to move it around on Tuesday.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Wet loose avalanches were reported Friday and Saturday up to 1900 m with warm temperatures.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

High freezing levels over the weekend produced moist surface snow up to 2000 m, now a crust and under a trace of recent flurries. Additional light flurries in the forecast won't do much to change this picture over the next few days.

A crust/facet layer is down 50-90 cm (and 2-15 cm thick at TL elevation), below the mid-pack is settled and consolidated.

Another crust/facet layer is down 70-150 cm. Below this crust, the basal snowpack is weak and faceted. Treeline snow depths average 120-250 cm.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Light west or northwest winds.

Tuesday

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, increasing a bit overnight. Light west or southwest winds, increasing slightly. Treeline high temperatures around -4.

Wednesday

Cloudy with continuing isolated flurries with less than 5 cm of new snow, including overnight amounts. Light to moderate southwest winds, increasing over the day. Treeline high temperatures around -5.

Thursday

Cloudy with continuing scattered flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow, including overnight amounts. Light southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around -5.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.