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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2023–Jan 7th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Rider-triggered avalanches are still possible where the persistent weak layer is closer to the snow surface in shallow snowpack areas.

Read about this year's persistent weak layers in the Forecasters Blog

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported in the area.

This rider triggered a small avalanche in an opening, as shown in this MIN.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 40 cm of soft snow has settled over a generally weak and faceted mid and lower snowpack.

There are two layers of concern that are relatively close together, the upper weak layer developed in mid-December is 30 to 50 cm deep. The lower weak layer developed in mid-November 70 to 100 cm. Triggering these layers is more likely in shallow, rocky, terrain features where the weak layers are closer to the surface.

Check out the Forecasters' blog for some more details on how to manage this year's persistent weak layers.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy, trace new snow, 10 km/h southwest, treeline temperature -5 ºC.

Saturday

Mainly cloudy, trace new snow, 10 to 20 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -6 ºC

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, flurries with accumulation from 2 to 5 cm, 10 to 20 km/h, treeline temperatures -6 ºC

Monday

Mainly cloudy, flurries tapering through the morning, 10 to 20 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -5 ºC

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.