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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2022–Dec 16th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

With another day of warm temperatures and sun, loose wet avalanches are possible in steep terrain as the surface snow losses cohesion.

A weak layer persists deep in the snowpack, which could potentially be triggered by smaller avalanches on the surface.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported.

Keep sharing your observations by submitting a MIN report! They are especially helpful in the early season when snowpack information can be limited.

Snowpack Summary

Surface: Moist surface snow on solar aspects with another day of warm temperatures. Sheltered north-facing terrain remains dry.

Upper Snowpack: The upper snowpack continues to settle into a cohesive slab with above freezing temperatures and sun.

Lower Snowpack: A weak layer of facets with a crust and surface hoar buried in late November exists 10 to 30 cm above the ground.

Overall snow depths generally range from 100-140 cm in the alpine.

Weather Summary

Thursday night

Sunny, with alpine temperatures remaining above freezing. Light south winds. Freezing levels remain above the mountaintops.

Friday

Sunny, with alpine temperatures around 0 to +5 C. Light south winds. Freezing levels remain above the mountaintops.

Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud, with no precipitation. Light westerly alpine winds. Freezing levels drop throughout the day, bringing below-freezing temperatures to the alpine.

Sunday

Mix of sun and cloud. Chance of flurries. Light winds and temperatures around 0 to -10 C in the alpine.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.