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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2026–Feb 16th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Wind loaded features may remain reactive in the alpine and treeline, approach lee slopes with caution.

Persistent weak layers in the upper snowpack are maintaining the possibility of human triggering, be especially cautious in less travelled areas.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident that there are persistent slabs in the snowpack, but uncertain about how likely they are to trigger.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday a field team observed a size 2.5 from the Frequent flyer path, which stepped down to the Jan 26th layer on the fan, as well as several size 2s from the N side of Cheops. There were also several size 2s in the steep terrain of the highway corridor.

On Friday, a team remotely triggered 2 size 1.5s between 1600-1850m, on the Jan 26th layer. This was in infrequently travelled terrain below the Avalanche Glacier.

Snowpack Summary

50-60cm of snow fell this week and was redistributed by gusty winds in the alpine and treeline.

There are several crusts in the upper snowpack from the springlike temps and sunshine we've had in the past 2 weeks.

The Jan 26th layer of surface hoar, facets, and a crust, is buried down 45-80cm. The largest surface hoar is preserved in sheltered areas below treeline.

Below this the snowpack is well settled/strong.

Weather Summary

No significant precip on the horizon, a few flurries before arctic air moves in later this week

Tonight: Clear periods. Alpine low -10°C. Light-mod SW winds. Freezing level (FZL) 500m.

Mon: Sun & cloud, isolated flurries. Low -11 °C, High -6 °C. Gusty moderate SW wind. FZL 1100m.

Tue: Cloudy. Low -12 °C, High -6 °C. Light variable wind. FZL 1100m.

Wed: Sun & cloud. Low -21 °C, High -15 °C. Light variable wind. FZL 800m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Approach steep and open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, as buried surface hoar may exist.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.