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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2026–Mar 16th, 2026

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

North Rockies, East Kakwa, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass, Renshaw, Robson, Tumbler.

Be ready to back off from avalanche terrain as danger increases over the day. Heavy snowfall, strong wind, and rising temperatures are expected to begin a natural avalanche cycle.

Confidence

High

  • We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, explosives control targeting buried weak layers with large explosives triggered one large (size 2.5) persistent slab near Pine Pass. This occurred on a south aspect at treeline.

The heavy explosives trigger doesn't suggest a wider problem exists, but this may change if heavy rain reaches high enough elevations.

A widespread storm slab problem is expected to form through Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 30 to 50 cm of new snow should accumulate by end-of-day Monday. This adds to a settling 40 cm that accumulated since March 7, which sits on old wind effect at exposed higher elevations and on a crust that extends to ridgetop. Wind slab formation from easterly winds occurred with the earlier storm, now buried by either low density snow or more westerly wind transport. The crust becomes supportive at lower elevations and is 5 cm thick below 1400 m.

Another crust with faceted snow above, buried at treeline and below in February, is found around 100 to 160 cm deep. It's becoming well bonded to the surrounding snow and at lower elevations will be capped by more recent crust.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night
Cloudy with increasing flurries bringing 10 to 20 cm of new snow. 30 to 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, increasing. Treeline temperature reaching -7 °C.

Monday
Cloudy with increasing snowfall bringing 20 to 35 cm of new snow. 80 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C with freezing level rising from valley bottom to 1500 m, rising to 2300 m overnight.

Tuesday
Cloudy with continuing heavy snowfall bringing 40 to 60 cm of new snow above 1800 m, including overnight, heavy rain below. 70 to 80 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, easing a bit. Treeline temperature 1 to 2 °C with freezing level 2100 m.

Wednesday
Cloudy with easing snowfall bringing 15 to 30 cm of new snow above 1600 m, including overnight, rain below. 60 to 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, easing. Treeline temperature 1 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • As the storm slab problem worsens, the easy solution is to choose more conservative terrain.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.