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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 3rd, 2022–Dec 4th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Investigate the effect of the recent strong winds on the snowpack. Expect pockets of dense wind slab around ridgelines and mid slope terrain features.

Small avalanches have the potential to trigger deeper weak layers. Assess conditions as you travel and gain information

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Early season observations are limited! We expect natural and rider triggered wind slab avalanches to also have occurred throughout this region, from available snow and strong winds. Explosives produced size 1.5 wind slabs on Thursday.

A layer of surface hoar layer continues to be a concern. Avalanches up to size 2 were last reported on this layer on November 29th, believed to fail on the surface hoar before 'stepping down' to weak and sugary facets near the base of the snowpack. Check out this MIN report for more details.

We have very few eyes out there. If you do get out please consider reporting in the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

Strong southwest winds will have redistributed recent snowfall into dense wind slabs at upper elevations. In exposed terrain some slopes may have been stripped back to early season layers or rock. In sheltered terrain new wind affected snow sits above more faceted (sugary, weak) snow which may not bond well. Cold temperatures have weakened and faceted the snowpack as a whole. A rain crust sits near the ground.

Total snowpack depths at treeline elevations are 50-80 cm and in the alpine 70-140 cm. In many areas, below treeline elevations remain below the threshold for avalanches.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Mostly clear skies with cold temperatures. Winds ease to moderate from the west/northwest. No snowfall expected.

Sunday

Clear skies to start with some cloud developing over the day brings a possibility of isolate flurries. Winds are expected to stay light to moderate from the south. Alpine high of -10.

Monday

Cloudy with light snowfall expected over the day bringing up to 3 cm. Strong westerly winds return. Alpine high -10.

Tuesday

A similar story, cloudy with up to 5 cm and strong westerly winds at ridgeline. Alpine high -15.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Choose low-angled, sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.