Avalanche forecast

Cariboos

Jan 28 – 29, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–7
    Wind slabs continue to build behind ridges and terrain breaks. Areas that avalanched earlier this week may re-load as the storm continues.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    3–5
    Large cornices are looming over many slopes. A falling chunk could trigger an avalanche on the slope below.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–5
    Storm slabs have been failing on buried weak layers at all elevations. Slabs will grow in size and may become more touchy with warming and snowfall this weekend.

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: 10-25cm further snow, with the freezing level near 1200m. Strong winds. Sunday: 10-25cm snow. Strong to gale westerly winds. Freezing level around 1200m.Monday: Light snow. Light to moderate westerly winds.Tuesday: A few flurries, with sunny breaks. Gusty westerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanches were observed below 1500m on Friday, failing on the crust/facet combo. On Thursday, a skier remotely triggered a size 1.5 slab on a convex feature. It failed on facets beneath the storm snow. On Wednesday, three size 3.5 natural avalanches ran full path. A few other natural avalanches, up to size 2, were observed in steep lee (wind-loaded) terrain. I expect more avalanche activity to occur during the weekend's storm.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Snowpack Summary

Up to 1m of snow has fallen since Monday. Strong winds have created hard slabs, soft slabs and fragile cornices. Key concerns as further snow builds this weekend include a weak facet layer that was created during the brutal cold snap in mid-January and a buried crust, with associated facets, which is found below about 1500m and is quite touchy in some areas. Snowpack test results on this layer range from no result to easy, sudden shears.

Regions covered