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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2026–Jan 16th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Rugged travel at lower elevations may be the biggest hazard, where a breakable crust caps the snowpack.

Watch for windslabs as you crest out of the crust laden forest and into the alpine.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Uncertainty is due to limitations in the field data.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed on Thursday.

There were reports of a few fresh avalanches up to size 2.5 locally and from neighboring operations on Wednesday - some triggered by cornice fall.

Artillery control in Rogers Pass on Monday produced numerous avalanches from sz 2.5 to 3.5. There was also a natural avalanche cycle during this stormy period, with avalanches running to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

Around 40cm of heavy snow fell early in the week - this was accompanied by above-freezing temperatures which reached into the alpine. Cooler temps have now formed a problematic breakable crust on all but high elevation slopes.

A persistent weak layer was buried on January 1st and is now down 90–130 cm deep. In sheltered areas at treeline and below this interface may be surface hoar. At treeline and into the alpine it is a suncrust.

Weather Summary

Expect stable weather through the weekend, as a ridge of high pressure establishes itself over our area.

Tonight: Clear periods. Alpine low -9°C. Light Northerly ridgetop winds.

Fri: Mostly sunny. Alpine high -3°C. Freezing level (FZL) 1300m. Light North winds.

Sat: Mostly sunny. Low -3 °C, High -1 °C. FZL 1500m. Alpine temp inversion. Light West wind.

Sun: Mostly sunny. Low -6 °C, High -2 °C. Light N wind.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.