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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2026–Jan 14th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

A big, heavy storm slab has plopped down on our snowpack, the remnants of the recent storm passage. Incoming warm air aloft will keep Danger levels elevated until things cool off.

Choose conservative terrain and avoid overhead hazards, especially if/when the sun comes out. Solar slopes will shed this warm mass quickly with sun!

Confidence

Moderate

  • Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Avalanche Summary

Artillery control in Rogers Pass overnight produced many avalanches from sz 2.5 to 3.5. Natural avalanches before control commenced were running to valley bottom in the Tupper/Macdonald corridor. Natural avalanche activity has decreased with the storm passage.

Ski operations neighbouring Rogers Pass report storm slabs being triggered both naturally and by humans to sz 2.

Snowpack Summary

To summarize the snowpack, we have a heavy, warm, widespread storm slab perched atop a well-settled mid to lower snowpack.

Deeper in the snowpack lingers the Jan 1 persistent weak layer (PWL), buried 90-130cm. The PWL varies in character depending on elevation and aspect. Treeline and below, the PWL is a layer of surface hoar in sheltered areas. Above Treeline and into the Alpine, the PWL is a crust on solar slopes.

Weather Summary

The main storyline to follow Wed is the high freezing levels.

Tonight: Mainly cloudy. Alp low 0°C. Winds SW 25km/h. Freezing level (FZL) 1600m

Wed Mainly cloudy with sunny periods. Alp high 3°C with a weak inversion. Winds SW 30-40km/h. FZL 1600-2600m

Thurs Cloudy with sunny periods. Alp high -3°C. Winds NW 15-25km/h. FZL 1000m.

Fri Sunny, Alp high 0°C. Winds light to 20km/h. FZL 1600m. Alpine temp inversion.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Avoid areas with overhead hazard.
  • Don't let the desire for deep powder pull you into high consequence terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.