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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2026–Jan 13th, 2026

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Moyie.

7 AM Update: Reactive storm slabs have built overnight. Choose conservative terrain and give the new snow time to bond.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Uncertainty is due to limitations in the field data.

Avalanche Summary

Sunday

  • A natural size 1.5 storm slab occurred

  • Skiers intentionally cut small size 1 slabs and cornices in the Lizard Range.

Saturday

  • Several size 1 to 1.5 slabs were reported in alpine and treeline terrain across the region.

  • Skiers accidentally triggered wind slabs on Mt.Fernie (MIN post here) and in Cabin Bowl.

  • A natural cornice-triggered avalanche was also reported - see photos.

Looking forward

  • We expect wind slabs & cornices to remain triggerable on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snow, combined with strong southwesterly winds and relatively warm temperatures, has built large cornices and new slabs, particularly near ridgetops. The snow surface is wet at lower elevations from rain and warm air.

A weak layer of surface hoar can be found in some sheltered terrain features buried 40 to 60 cm. In other areas, a melt-freeze crust can be found at similar burial depths, up to around 2000 m.

The remaining snowpack currently has no layers of concern.

Weather Summary

Monday Night
Cloudy. 15 cm of snow. 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1600 m.

Tuesday
Cloudy. 0 to 2 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level rising to 2100 m.

Wednesday
Mostly sunny. 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 4 °C. Freezing level rising to 3700 m.

Thursday
Sunny. 30 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level around 1400 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep your guard up at all elevations. Wind slab formation has been extensive and could extend into openings below treeline.
  • Cornices often break further back than expected; give them a wide berth when traveling on ridgetops.
  • Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
  • Keep in mind that the high density of wet avalanches can make them destructive.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.