Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 27th, 2017–Mar 28th, 2017

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia.

Convective spring-like weather may bring localized higher snowfall amounts. Moderate winds continue to build reactive wind slabs at higher elevations on the leeward side of terrain features.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Unsettled conditions and convective air could bring 5-10 cm of new snow with mostly cloudy skies. Ridgetop winds will be moderate from the SW and freezing levels near 1500 m. Wednesday: Snow amounts 5-10 cm. Ridgetop winds light-moderate from the South and freezing levels near 1600 m.Thursday: Cloudy with possible sunny breaks. Ridgetop winds light from the SW and freezing levels near 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, natural slab avalanches were observed up to size 2.5 mostly from northeasterly aspects above 2300 m and skier controlled smaller wind and storm slabs up to size 1.5 continue to be easily triggered. Cornices are large and fragile and when they fail they continue to trigger large slab avalanches from the slopes below. One of the cornice failures produced a size 3.5 avalanche which ran from a northerly aspect for 1500 m. The recent storm snow is expected to be reactive at higher elevations, especially in wind loaded terrain and on steep convex features. Cornices are large and may become weak with daytime warming or during stormy periods. We are in a low probability, high consequence scenario for persistent slab avalanches failing on deep buried weak layers. Click here for more details. Check out the new Forecasters blog here.

Snowpack Summary

20-50 cm of snow has now accumulated over the past week which overlies a rain crust below around 2000 m or a sun crust on solar aspects at higher elevations. Alpine wind has recently been strong mainly from south through west directions and has loaded leeward slopes in exposed terrain at treeline and in the alpine. Large, fragile cornices are also reported in the alpine. At lower elevations, there may be multiple crust layers in the upper snowpack which are now generally well bonded and stable. At higher elevations, the February weak layers are down 120-150 cm and woke up during last week's storm with many avalanches stepping down. The deep mid-December facet layer and November rain crust both still linger near the bottom of the snowpack and a few avalanches and cornice falls also stepped down to these layers last week resulting in some very large full depth avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.