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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2021–Mar 13th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Rising freezing levels and sunshine will increase the likelihood of avalanches in many areas. Avoid exposure to cornices and steep sun-exposed slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels. Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with clear periods / light to moderate southwest wind / alpine low temperature near -2 / freezing level 1300 m 

SATURDAY - Mainly sunny / moderate southwest wind / alpine high temperature near 3 in the south, -1 in the north / freezing level 2500 m in the south, 2000 m in the north

SUNDAY - Mainly sunny with increasing cloud and a chance of flurries in the afternoon / alpine high temperature near 1 in the south, -2 in the north / freezing level 2300 m in the south, 1700 m in the north

MONDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light variable wind / alpine high temperature near -3 / freezing level 1500 m

Avalanche Summary

Sunshine and rising freezing levels are expected to increase the likelihood of avalanches and cornice failures on Saturday. This trend is expected to be the most pronounced in the south of the region where freezing levels are expected to be higher than in the north.

On Thursday, there was a natural size 2.5 wind slab avalanche reported on a southwest aspect at 2200 m in the Duffey Lake area. There was also a natural size 2 cornice reported in the Coquihalla area.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs can be found on leeward slopes at upper elevations and may still be possible to trigger. Solar aspects likely have a crust on the surface, which may become moist/wet with exposure to sun and rising freezing levels. Soft, dry snow may be found in sheltered, shaded areas. Massive cornices exist on ridgelines, which can also act as triggers on slopes below. 

In the north of the region, a weak layer of facets buried in mid-February may still be found on north aspects near treeline but has been gaining strength. The lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.

In the south of the region, the mid and lower snowpack is generally well consolidated with no concerns of buried weak layers. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Minimize your exposure time below cornices.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.