Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2025–Jan 6th, 2025

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Warmer and windier conditions are expected to start this week.

Consider sharing your adventures with a MIN report, or even just a photo - every little bit helps!

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

During weekend patrols on Highway 93N, no new avalanche activity was observed, aside from some minor sluffing in steep, rocky terrain

Nearest neighbors are still observing natural Deep Persistent Slab activity this week, and several explosives-triggered Deep Persistent Slabs (up to size 2) were reported by the ski hill on Wednesday. This serves as a reminder that this problem persists, and triggering full-depth avalanches remains a possibility.

Snowpack Summary

Over the past week, up to 10 cm of low-density snow has accumulated under calm conditions. With an incoming weather system, be alert for the potential formation of wind slabs.

The snowpack is mostly made up of facets and ranges in depth from 60 to 120 cm at treeline and above. At the bottom of the snowpack there are multiple early season crusts with facets above and below.

Weather Summary

From Sunday evening through Monday, expect lighter winds, partly cloudy skies, and occasional flurries. Temperatures will begin to warm as an upper ridge starts to develop.

Early in the week, W-NW winds are forecasted to intensify as the ridge strengthens, reaching its peak by Tuesday. By mid-week, the ridge is expected to weaken temporarily, leading to very strong winds, particularly at ridgetop elevations.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present in the snowpack.
Be especially cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.