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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 31st, 2022–Apr 1st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Expect firm conditions in the morning, softening with sun and warm temperatures throughout the day.

Wet avalanches become more likely on south facing slopes as the surface crust breaks down, and snow becomes wet and heavy. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, moderate westerly winds. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom. Isolated flurries possible.

FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with light to moderate southwest winds. Freezing levels around 1700 m. Alpine highs of +3. 

SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, light snowfall over the day brings up to 5 cm to western terrain. Freezing levels around 1500 m. Alpine highs of 0. 

SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing levels reach 1700. Alpine highs of +2.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday loose wet avalanches were reported on south facing slopes at treeline and below to size 2.5. 

On Tuesday, several size 2-3 wet avalanches were naturally triggered by sun, warm temperatures and cornice falls in western terrain near the Bugaboos, with some failing at the ground.

Avalanche activity is expected to decrease as temperatures cool and freezing levels drop. 

Snowpack Summary

Small pockets of wind loading may sit on north and east facing slopes in the alpine, more prominent in western terrain. A crust exists on all aspects as high as 2500 m, softening in the afternoon at all elevations with warm temperatures and sun creating moist surface snow. At very low elevations, the snowpack may be wet and isothermal, depending on overnight freezing levels. 

At 30 to 75 cm below the snow surface, a sun crust can be found on solar aspects from March. The recent warm weather seems to have helped this layer bond. 

A thick rain crust with facets above from early December is buried around 150 cm deep. Large avalanches were naturally triggered on this layer during the most recent warm temperatures in western terrain near the Bugaboos. Continued avalanche activity on this layer is unlikely with cooler temperatures forecast. 

Terrain and Travel

  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.