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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2022–Mar 3rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Storm slabs continue to be reactive to human triggers at treeline and above. They may be touchier on leeward slopes due to wind loading and have potential to be remotely triggered from a fair distance away.

Conservative travel habits and patience is key.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength. The snowpack structure is mostly striaghtforward and not unusually variable.

Weather Forecast

Change is in the air with an unstable airmass bringing convective, spring-like weather. Generally, overcast skies and a drying trend will exist Thursday. The ridge should be set up by Friday with clearing skies and light northwest winds.

Wednesday Night: 5-10 cm of new snow. Freezing levels dropping to 1000 m overnight and moderate southwesterly wind at ridgetop. 

Thursday: Cloudy skies. Convective flurries up to 10 cm with light northwest wind. Freezing levels 1000 to 1500 m. 

Friday: Sunny skies with spring-like (diurnal) freezing levels dropping to 1000 m overnight and rising to 1500 m during the day. Ridgetop wind moderate from the northwest. 

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, a natural avalanche cycle up to size 3 was reported as well as a skier remote (from 40 m away) size 2.5 from on east aspect around 1700 m. This avalanche reportedly failed on the mid-February sun crust/ surface hoar interface down 50 cm with wide propagation. Another skier triggered storm slab size 2 was also reported from a stepper east facing slope.

On Tuesday, a few small size 1 wet loose avalanches were reported at lower elevations.

On Monday, storm slabs were still reactive but less electric than Sunday. A natural cycle up to size 2 was observed through limited visibility in the Whistler backcountry. Explosive control work produced mostly size 1s with a couple size 2 storm slabs. On the other side of the 99, a size 1 wet slab was observed sliding on the crust on an east aspect at 1500 m.

Snowpack Summary

30-50 cm of wind affected, storm snow sits over a variety of surfaces including sun crusts on solar aspects, a thick rain crust in windswept terrain and facets in shady, sheltered terrain. Reports indicate that there is generally a decent bond to the old surfaces below in some areas and a poor bond in others. Large and looming cornices have grown during the recent storm. The upper snowpack is moist or wet below 1400 m.

A crust/facet/surface hoar interface formed late-January is buried down 40-100 cm. This layer was most reactive between 1700 m and 2000 m. While this layer has been dormant in most of the region lately, large loads such as heavy snowfalls and cornice falls could wake it up and produce very large avalanches.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.