Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 3rd, 2012–Feb 4th, 2012

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Columbia.

This is the first significant warm spell of the season and the snowpack is revealing its secrets, especially in alpine locations. Make conservative terrain choices as destructive avalanches are a real possibility.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Expect clear skies and light southerly winds for the entire forecast period. An inversion is also meant to dominate the region with alpine temperatures sitting at about 1.0'.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural cornice falls were reported, some of which triggered slabs on the slope below. Wet sluffing was also observed on sun-exposed slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Storm slabs up to 60cms thick have formed . They seem to be settling out quickly, but still show isolated sensitivity to rider triggers; particularly on steeper slopes and convex rolls. Wind slabs have formed on North through East slopes in the alpine and at treeline. Buried below seems to be a fairly settled mid-pack, with a couple of lingering layers. most notably the January 13th surface hoar/facet layer . Recent snowpack field tests have shown generally moderate results, including resistant planar shears. This layer is getting stronger; but it may become reactive with a larger load or warming. The average snowpack depth at 1700m is 2-3 m.Sun-exposed slopes as well as weak and large cornices are a concern with the current warming pattern.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.