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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 30th, 2022–Mar 31st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Evaluate surface conditions throughout the day. 

As the surface crust breaks down and snow becomes wet, avalanches become more likely. Brief periods of strong sunshine and rising temperatures can quickly increase danger. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Up to 5 cm overnight. Freezing levels drop to 1000 m. Partly cloudy. 

THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate westerly winds. Light flurries continue. Freezing levels reach 1700 m, alpine highs of +1.

FRIDAY: Sunny with afternoon cloud, light southwest winds. Freezing levels reach 1800 m. Alpine highs of +4. 

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with light westerly winds. Light snowfall, around 5-10 cm over the day. Freezing levels reach 1700 m. Alpine highs of +1. 

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, natural wet avalanches were reported on steep sun affected slopes to size 1. Wet avalanche activity is expected to decrease as temperatures cool and freezing levels lower this week. 

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack is going through a daily melt-freeze cycle. A crust exists on all aspects to around 2300 m, and into the alpine on solar aspects. Warm temperatures and sun are softening or breaking down the crust during the day and creating moist snow. At very low elevations, the snowpack may be wet and isothermal, depending on overnight freezing levels. 

The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.