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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 17th, 2022–Feb 18th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

The likelihood of triggering the late January layer is low but not impossible. Use caution on slopes where a thick and supportive crust is absent.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow and light to moderate northwest winds. Low of -3 at 1500m.

Friday: cloudy with light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow. Light to moderate west winds and freezing levels rising to 1300m.

Saturday: cloudy with light snow bringing up to 5cm with moderate west winds. High of -2 at 1500m.

Sunday: a mix of sun and clouds with light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow. Light northwest winds and a high of -3 at 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday one size one natural cornice fall was observed on a east aspect at 2200m. It was in extreme terrain and did not pull a slab on the slope below.

On Monday several small wind slab avalanches were observed in the immediate lee of ridge features. These avalanches were thin with very little destructive potential but touchy due to the surface underneath.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10cm of new snow has buried a widespread crust and wind-affected surfaces in exposed high elevation terrain. Thin wind slabs can be found in the immediate lee of ridge features in the alpine and treeline. The new melt-freeze crust is reported to exist on all aspects and elevations except for some of the highest elevation polar aspects which may still hold dry snow. The crust is reported to be undergoing faceting in some areas.

The late-January crust/facet/surface hoar interface is buried down 30-70 cm. This layer was most reactive between 1700 m and 2000 m. While this layer now appears to be dormant in many parts of the region, recent snowpack tests suggest it is still very reactive in a few places and would still be capable of producing large avalanches if triggered. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.