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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 10th, 2022–Mar 11th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

The avalanche danger will increase into the weekend, with snowfall forecast to begin Friday afternoon, giving a total accumulation of up to 25cm by Sunday.

Weather Forecast

A frontal system gives moderate snowfall, warming temps, and strong SW wind into the weekend

Tonight: Clear periods, Alpine low -13*C, light SW ridgetop wind

Fri: Flurries turning to snowfall (10cm), High -6*C, moderate SW wind, freezing level (FZL) 1100m

Sat: Flurries (10cm), Low -9*C, High -7*C, strong SW wind, FZL1300m

Sun: Flurries (5cm), FZL 1500m

Snowpack Summary

Incoming snow will cover a variety of surfaces - a crust on steep solar aspects (widespread below 1500m), settled pow in shaded/sheltered areas, and wind effect in the alpine from Northerly switching to SW winds. The Feb 26th interface (small surface hoar or suncrust) lingers down 30-40cm but has not been reactive recently.

Avalanche Summary

Tuesday - there was a near miss in Loop Brook drainage, when a rider remote triggered a size 2.0 slab at ridge top, NE asp, MCR.

A near miss from a cornice fall in MacDonald gully #11.

And, an MCR reporting isolated wind slabs in the Illecillewaet drainage.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.