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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 28th, 2022–Mar 29th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Start early and finish early. Solar radiation is expected to be strong on Tuesday with clear skies.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

The overnight low for Monday night is forecast to be -13c with a high of 0c on Tuesday in the alpine. Winds are forecast to be 40km/hr from the North. This means that it will take longer for the crust to break down on Tuesday. On the other hand, the skies are expected to be mostly clear, giving the sun its full heat and radiation potential, especially on solar aspects. Expect solar aspects to start shedding some loose wet avalanches at some point in the afternoon. Cool and cloudy skies for Wednesday and Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed.

Snowpack Summary

Expect a solid freeze of the upper snowpack on solar aspects in the morning with the crust breaking down by early afternoon. This could happen sooner if the overnight temperature is warmer. On North aspects, expect to find a crust up to 2300m, with dry snow above. Basically, the hazard will be low in the morning and will increase on solar aspects with solar radiation.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.