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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 6th, 2026–Feb 7th, 2026

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

With so much uncertainty about tonight's rain vs. snow battle, your validation of conditions on the ground is key. Expect dangerous avalanche conditions where 30 cm or more accumulates.

Confidence

Low

  • We are uncertain if precipitation will fall as rain or snow.

Avalanche Summary

Unsurprisingly, no new or even recent avalanches have been reported on the Island during the extended snowfall drought.

The Friday Night to Saturday storm is set to change the scene dramatically, at least in the alpine, where heavy snowfall is expected to perpetuate a natural avalanche cycle. Treeline is a lot more uncertain.

Snowpack Summary

By end-of-day Saturday, a highly uncertain 40 to 80 cm of new snow might accumulate in the alpine. Accumulations will taper sharply with elevation, leaving treeline elevations especially uncertain. Heavy rain will mostly fall on vegetation below treeline.

Where snow accumulates, it will bury a widespread, moist or wet crust over a thoroughly settled, recently isothermal snowpack. It's still about a metre deep in the alpine, but becomes patchy and disconnected at treeline. There is very little snow below treeline.

Weather Summary

Friday Night
Cloudy with increasing snowfall bringing 20 to 30 cm of alpine snow, tapering to rain below about 1400 to 1600 m. 40 to 70 km/h south ridgetop wind, increasing. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 1700 to 1900 m.

Saturday
Cloudy with continuing heavy precipitation bringing 25 to 50 cm of alpine snow, tapering to rain below about 1500 to 1700 m. 40 to 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, easing. Treeline temperature 4 °C. Freezing level 1800 - 2000 m.

Sunday
A mix of sun and clouds with isolated flurries. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 1300 m.

Monday
Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing 5 - 10 cm of new snow. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level falling to 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Snow is accumulating at higher elevations, despite lower elevations being almost snow-free.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.