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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 6th, 2023–Feb 7th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Rain vs. Snow: the Battle Continues

With avalanche problems highly contingent on the outcome of this battle, Tuesday is a day to travel in initial assessment mode. Be ready for active wet loose conditions at lower elevations until temperatures drop and bring your guard up as you encounter dry snow accumulations. Treat danger as HIGH if you encounter 30 cm or more.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural wet loose releases were observed on Monday at treeline and below as rain saturated our recent storm snow. Alpine observations are lacking, however with precipitation falling as snow, higher elevations likely experienced a natural avalanche cycle during the most recent storm pulse.

On Saturday explosive control on the east side of the island triggered a size 1.5 wind slab on a north aspect at treeline. This avalanche ran on the crust from late January.

Snowpack Summary

20-50 mm of precipitation is expected to cover the region by end of day Tuesday, heavily favouring the south and west of the island. Below about 1400 m it is likely to fall as rain before finishing with 5-15 cm of new snow on Tuesday, increasing with elevation.

The new snow adds to (while rain erodes) as much as 70 cm already accumulated above 700 m with ongoing southerly wind impacting open terrain.

This snow has fallen above a melt-freeze crust. The crust is up to 10 cm thick at lower elevations and tapers down to 1 cm thick on shaded or high elevation terrain. Other than a few cm of softer snow immediately below this crust, the remainder of the snowpack is strong and well bonded.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Continuing snowfall bringing another 20-40 mm of precipitation, mostly as rain. Strong to extreme south winds. Freezing levels reaching 1500 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy with easing snowfall bringing another 10 to 20 cm of precipitation, increasingly as snow. Heaviest precipitation on the south island. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around 0, falling over the day as freezing levels drop to 700 m.

Wednesday

Clearing with scattered flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow. Light southwest winds shifting southeast and increasing in the evening. Treeline high temperatures around -2 with freezing levels to 800 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with continuing snowfall from overnight bringing 10-20 cm of new snow, including overnight amounts. Strong to extreme south winds. Treeline high temperatures around 0 with freezing levels rising to 1400 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.