Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 24th, 2023–Jan 25th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kakwa, Tumbler.

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in this region. Wind and warming will continue to test a fragile snowpack. Read more in our latest forecaster blog.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in the past few days in the region but observations are limited.

Looking forward to this week, reactive wind slabs will continue to form but concern for step-down and large natural and human-triggered deep persistent slab avalanches is at the forefront of our minds. It is uncertain when the "tipping point" for large destructive avalanches will be reached, and this uncertainty demands conservative and low-consequence terrain selection. Check out this video on incremental loading to learn more.

If you are out in the backcountry please consider filling out a Mountain Information Network report.

Snowpack Summary

Strong westerly winds will continue to affect wind-exposed terrain and build fresh wind slabs in lee areas. On steep solar aspects, and sun crust may exist and at lower elevations, a rain crust exists.

Snowpack depths are shallower than normal, and several buried weak layers have been a concern over the past few weeks. Surface hoar or crust layers in the mid-snowpack may exist in this region, but field observations suggest these mid-snowpack weaknesses are less prominent here than in other areas.

The most concerning layer in this area is at the base of the snowpack. Large, weak facets buried in November are widespread. This layer is most likely to be problematic in steep, rocky alpine terrain, where shallower wind slab avalanches can scrub down to these basal facets.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures rise to -4 C. Ridge wind northwest 40-70 km/h. Freezing level rises to 1500 m.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures rise to -1 C. Ridge wind northwest 50-80 km/h. Freezing level rises to 1800 m.

Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind northwest 40-80 km/h. Freezing level 1500 m.

Friday

Mainly cloudy with flurries, up to 10 cm of accumulation. Alpine temperatures drop to -8 C. Ridge wind northwest 15-40 km/h. Freezing level drops to 500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of strong wind.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.