Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2026–Jan 17th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Saturday will be sunny and warm, with temperatures rising into the alpine.

If the snow starts to feel soft and the air feels warm, be cautious of recently formed wind slabs and steep sunny slopes.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday several loose wet avalanches were observed up to size 2, most occurring on steep sun exposed slopes.

Wind slabs and loose wet avalanches up to size 2 were produced from avalanche control along the Icefields Parkway on Tuesday.

A size 3.5 deep persistent slab triggered by a large cornice failure was observed on Saturday in the icefields area, and a size 2 deep persistent slab was observed from the ski hill in the adjacent backcountry on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Strong winds from changing directions (southwest to north west) have created wind slabs at tree line & above and even into exposed below treeline features. Fluctuating freezing levels have formed moist snow/melt freeze crusts below 2000m and up to ridge top on solar aspects. The basal facet deep persistent problem remains a concern, particularly in thin snowpack areas, or under large triggers like cornice falls.

Weather Summary

Saturday

Sunny. Alpine temperature: High 0 °C. Ridge wind light to 20 km/h. Freezing level: 2500 metres.

Sunday

Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine temperature: Low -11 °C, High -6 °C. Ridge wind light to 25 km/h. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Monday

Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine temperature: Low -9 °C, High -6 °C. Light ridge wind. Freezing level at valley bottom. Alpine temperature inversion.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avoid steep, sun-exposed slopes when the air temperature is warm or when solar radiation is strong.
Keep in mind that human triggering may persist as natural avalanches taper off.
Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.