Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2024–Jan 30th, 2024

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos, North Rockies, Quesnel, Sugarbowl, East Kakwa, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass, Renshaw, Robson, Tumbler.

Continue to choose conservative terrain.

We have some uncertainty in how quickly the snowpack will gain strength.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

ON Sunday a natural avalanche cycle occurred with avalanches on all aspects and elevations to size 3.

A fatal avalanche incident involving one snowmobiler occurred in the Hasler riding area on Saturday. The avalanche was triggered in a wind-loaded east-facing chute feature at treeline and ran approximately 250 m. It likely failed on a layer of facets buried earlier in January. For more details on this incident, see the Fatal Avalanche Incident report.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snow has been redistributed by southerly winds. Elevated freezing levels and rain have moistened the surface at all elevations except some high alpine terrain.

30 to 60 cm of snow sits over a layer of facets formed during the mid January cold snap. Bonding at this interface varies through the region.

A prominent crust is found 40 to 100 cm deep. It extends up to 1900 m in the Cariboos and up to 1400 m around Pine Pass.

The midpack is generally strong and well bonded, except for areas east of the Divide, where the snowpack is shallow and faceted with depths of 60 to 100 cm around treeline.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy with 6 to 12 cm of new snow expected in the alpine, southwest alpine wind 40 to 70 km/h, freezing level around 1600 m.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud with no new snow expected, southwest alpine wind 40 to 70 km/h, freezing level around 1800 m.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud with light rain possible, southwest alpine wind 25 to 50 km/h, freezing level around 2400 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with around 5 mm of rain expected, southwest alpine wind 15 to 30 km/h, freezing level rising to 2200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.