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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2024–Jan 29th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Blue River, McBride, Premier, Clemina, Esplanade, North Monashee, North Selkirk, Dogtooth, West Purcell.

Avoid avalanche terrain. Stick to low angle slopes with no overhead hazard.

Rising freezing levels will further destabilize a complex snowpack with several avalanche problems.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

On Friday in the Dogtooth range, a group of skiers triggered a size 4 (absolutely enormous) avalanche from a ridgetop and were thankfully unharmed.

This adds to a long list of large to very large avalanches on various weak layers throughout the east Cariboos, northern Selkirks, and west Purcells in recent days, including natural, rider, cornice  and remote triggered size 2-3.5.

We expect this type and size of avalanche activity to continue over the next couple days.

Snowpack Summary

Light snowfall continues to accumulate in the alpine and be redistributed by southerly winds. Elevated freezing levels and rain have moistened the surface at treeline and below.

Beneath lies a complex snowpack containing several layers of concern that continue to produce avalanche activity:

·         Facets formed during the mid January cold snap sit 20-40 cm deep.

·         A surface hoar/facet/crust layer formed in early January sits 60-80 cm deep.

·         Another surface hoar layer that was buried in early December is now 130+ cm deep and remains a concern above 2000 m where it is not capped by a crust.

The lower snowpack is characterized by weak basal facets in many areas. Avalanches on this layer have been large and destructive

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy with trace amounts of new snow expected in the alpine, south alpine wind 25 to 60 km/h, freezing level around 1800 m.

Monday

Cloudy with up to 5 mm of rain expected, south alpine wind 25 to 50 km/h, freezing level 2600 to 2900 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of snow in the alpine, southwest alpine wind 40 to 60 km/h, freezing level around 2400 m.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud with trace amounts of snow in the alpine, south alpine wind 25 to 50 km/h, freezing level around 2500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
  • Be aware of the potential for large, destructive avalanches due to the presence of deeply buried weak layers.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.