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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 23rd, 2024–Jan 24th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Warming temps and moderate SW winds have created a soft storm slab at all elevations.

Be suspect of surface snow that feels heavier/stiffer, like around ridgecrests and cross-loaded features.

Watch for "mashed-potato" consistency storm slabs at low elevations, especially in steep-sided gullies or convex rolls.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

A field team was able to ski cut a few convexities on solar aspects the last 2 days, producing up to sz 1.5 soft slabs running 30-40cm deep on the Jan 3 melt-freeze crust. These slabs were more reactive below Tree-line.

A natural sz 2 storm slab, ~30cm deep, 20m wide, 200m long, was observed from an Alpine start zone in the Connaught Path today.

Near neighbours are also reporting human-triggering of a soft slab, ~30-50cm deep, on unsupported rolls/features.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temps and 30cm of settling storm snow are creating a soft storm slab on top of variable wind effect in open terrain at/above Tree-line, and faceted snow in sheltered areas below Tree-line.

A sun crust (Jan 3), down 50cm and most prominent at and below Tree-line on S-SW aspects, has been the failure plane for recent human triggered avalanches.

The Dec 1 surface hoar layer is down ~110cm and is decomposing.

Weather Summary

Weak storm fronts will bring light snow, moderate winds, and mild temps the next few days.

Tonight: Cloudy, flurries, trace amounts, Alp low -5°C, light SW winds, 1400m freezing level (FZL)

Wed: Sun/cloud, flurries, trace amounts, Alp high -4°C, mod SW winds, 1600m FZL

Thurs: Flurries, 5-10cm, high -6°C, mod SW winds, 1400m FZL

Fri: Cloudy, isolated flurries, 5cm, Alp high -7°C, light SW winds, 1200m FZL

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for human triggerable storm slabs at lower elevations, even on small features.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.