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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 21st, 2024–Jan 22nd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Variable freezing levels bring a mix of snow and rain. Take extra caution in areas where the snow remains dry, or is seeing rain for the first time.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, our Field Team skier triggered several wind slabs (size 1-2) from alpine and treeline terrain near Mount Cokely. Read more in this MIN.

We suspect a widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred on Friday with heavy loading from snow, rain and wind.

If you head into the backcountry, please consider submitting a MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

Rain has impacted the snowpack in most areas, leaving the surface wet and sloppy. Dry snow may prevail in the alpine, and will have been redistributed by strong southerly winds. The transition zone between these areas, around the freezing level, has a breakable crust with moist to wet snow above and below it.

A weak facet/crust layer can be found down 50 to 100 cm. The remainder of the snowpack is strong, with numerous hard melt-freeze crusts.

Treeline snow depth ranges from 100 to 180 cm. Snow depth diminishes rapidly at low elevations where there has been more rainfall.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy with mixed precipitation. An average of 10 cm of snow at higher elevations, possibly up to 25 cm on the West Coast. Alpine wind south, 30 to 50 km/h. Treeline temperature 1 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Monday

Cloudy with rain, 5 to 10 cm of snow at higher elevations. Alpine wind southwest, 30 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 1500 m,

Tuesday

Cloudy with rain, 2 to 6 cm of snow at higher elevations. Alpine wind south, 35 to 50 km/h. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level falling to 1200 m.

Wednesday

Cloudy with rain, 10 to 20 cm of snow at higher elevations. Alpine wind south, 50 to 80 km/h. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 1200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.