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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 30th, 2024–Jan 31st, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, Akamina, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Until cold temperatures lock in this hot mess of a snowpack, dangerous avalanche conditions with persist.

It's a good idea to avoid avalanche terrain and spend time at the ski resort.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred over the past few days as rain impacted the snowpack. Numerous size 1-3 wet loose, wet slab and persistent slab avalanches have been observed on all aspects and elevations.

Until the snowpack gets locked in by cold temperatures, human-triggered avalanches remain likely and large natural avalanches are possible. Avoid overhead exposure, large natural avalanches could entrain significant mass and run to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

Rain has created a moist or wet upper snowpack at all elevations. A weak surface crust may have formed overnight but will break down quickly throughout the day.

There is a layer of sugary facets that are buried 30-50 cm deep and in some places sits on a crust from December. This layer has been reactive in snowpack tests.

The lower snowpack contains a series of crusts and faceted snow. Expect snow depth at treeline to be 70 to 120 cm.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Cloudy with clear periods. Alpine wind southwest 10 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature 0 °C, freezing level 3000 m.

Wednesday

Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine wind southwest 10 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature 4 °C, freezing level 3000 m.

Thursday

Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine wind southwest 10 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature 2 °C, freezing level 2500 m.

Friday

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Alpine wind light and variable. Treeline temperature 0 °C, freezing level 2000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Very large and destructive avalanches could reach valley bottom.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.