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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2020–Feb 16th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Newly formed windslabs are reactive with a thick melt freeze crust acting as a bed surface. Surface avalanches have the potential to step down to deep persistent slabs, particularly in shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Forecast

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud with freezing level at valley bottom. West winds 50km/ hour gusting to 80.

Saturday: Scattered flurries. 5- 10cm of accumulation with freezing level remaining at valley bottom. Strong SW wind.

Sunday: Snow throughout the day with total accumulation between 10-20cm. Freezing level 1100m. Strong SW wind.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow has allowed for continued development of windslabs on all but West aspects. New & old windslab sits over a thick melt freeze crust which exists up to 2100m. Recent natural windslab activity occurred with this melt freeze crust as the bed surface. The midpack is well settled, though weaker basal facets can be found in thin areas.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural size 1-2 windslab avalanches observed from the Akamina parkway today. One of the observed natural avalanches stepped down in to a deep persistent slab in a shallow snowpack area on a cross-loaded feature. Observations are less than 24 hours old .

Significant cornice growth noted in the alpine.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.