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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 11th, 2020–Mar 12th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Presently we are in a natural avalanche cycle. This will taper off throughout the day but the snowpack will take some time to adjust to the new load.

Expect storm slabs to be reactive to human loads.

Weather Forecast

Mixed sun and cloud today, followed by flurries Thurs/Fri and cold air by Friday night.

Today: Mix of sun and cloud, isolated flurries (trace amounts), alpine high -10*C, mod W winds

Thurs: Cloudy, scattered flurries, 5cm, alpine high -13*C, light W winds

Fri: Cloudy with gradual clearing, trace precip, alpine high -14*C dropping to -25*C, mod E winds

Snowpack Summary

25-30cm of snow and mod/strong SW winds last night has created a reactive storm slab. The new snow sits on a thin suncrust on solar aspects and small surface hoar on N'ly aspects. Below this slab, the Feb 22nd persistent weak layer is down 80-120cm, and consists of 3-7mm surface hoar on all aspects up to 2450m, and a crust on solar aspects.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanches began running to valley bottom last night up to size 3-3.5 from both N and S aspects. Several were observed crossing the snowsheds under Mt Tupper. Artillery control has also produced numerous sz 3's. We are in the middle of the natural cycle, which will likely subside with cooling temps and a drop in wind speed.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.