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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2020–Feb 15th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Convective flurries gave us a few new CM of snow over the past 24hrs. Cracking along lee features such as ridge-lines and cross-loaded bowls indicates that the recent windslabs are still within the range of being triggered by a skier. Give them time to stabilize. 

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Temperatures for Saturday are forecast to be around -10C with continued light flurries. Winds are forecast to continue out of the NW into the moderate range. If we are lucky, we may see 5-10cm over the next few days. 

Avalanche Summary

Some loose dry slides up to sz 1 from steep unskiable terrain. One new slab (sz 2) on a E aspects at 2700m on Mt Shark was also observed that was likely triggerred by a cornice collapse.  

Snowpack Summary

Convective flurries gave us 5cm or so over the past 24hrs and up to 10cm in some areas. Windslabs are being found in alpine areas up to 40cm thick and in lee and crossloaded terrain. Cracking has been observed in the upper snowpack in steeper and unsupported terrain indicating that the windlslabs are within the range of human triggerrring. The bottom 10-20cm of the snowpack is still weak depth hoar that can be triggerred from thin areas so choose routes that avoid steep thin and variable snowpack areas. 

Terrain and Travel

  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.