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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 5th, 2020–Feb 6th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Wind slab avalanches in steep alpine terrain are the main concern as there are no significant changes in the weather until the weekend.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, moderate wind from the west, alpine temperature drop to -12 C.

THURSDAY: Increasing cloud with isolated flurries in the late afternoon, light to moderate wind from the northwest, alpine high temperatures around -4 C.

FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with storm approaching in the evening, light wind, alpine high temperatures around -4 C.

SATURDAY: Periods of heavy snowfall with 10-20 cm possible, moderate wind from the southwest, alpine high temperature around -6 C.

Avalanche Summary

A few small (size 1) wind slab avalanches were triggered by riders on Wednesday. Fragile cornices and one large cornice fall have been reported over the past few days.

Snowpack Summary

Strong wind from the southwest has formed isolated wind slabs in the alpine and exposed treeline areas above 2100 m. Below this elevation, 10-20 cm of snow covers a solid melt-freeze crust that now caps the snowpack. In many areas this capping crust may extend to mountaintops. The bottom 10-20 cm of the snowpack consists of faceted snow and decomposing crusts. This basal layer has not been an active avalanche problem in the region since December and would likely require a sustained warming event before re-emerging as a concern.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.