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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 2nd, 2020–Feb 3rd, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Yesterdays 2000m freezing level and rain will make rugged travel the biggest hazard below treeline.  Don't get complacent as a result, it is still winter in the alpine.

Weather Forecast

A brief bout of high pressure gives relatively stable weather and cold temps until mid week.

Today: Sunny periods. Treeline temps High -14 °C. Light SW ridge wind.

Tonight: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Treeline temps Low -14 °C. Light SW ridge wind.

Monday: Cloudy periods with isolated flurries.  Treeline temps -14 °C to -17°C. Light W wind.

Snowpack Summary

Yesterdays intense storm brought Strong-Extreme winds (recorded gusts of up to 180km/hr), up to 70mm of precipitation, and a 12hr period of a 2000m freezing level.  Expect rugged travel with 10-15cm of snow on a crust below treeline, and windslab well into lees as well as huge fresh cornices at treeline and in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread cycle of large to very large natural avalanches occurred during yesterdays storm.  Avalanche control using artillery produced numerous size 3-3.5 avalanches from all aspects, these where mostly starting as storm slab avalanches and scrapping to ground and channeling in gullies as they gained mass in the wet snow at lower elevations.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.