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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2020–Jan 7th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Assess, assess, assess!

Expect reactive slabs!

Extreme south winds have created a variable upper snowpack.

Weather Forecast

A brief lull in the active weather pattern today before tomorrow's significant storm.

Today: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Freezing level 800m. Winds light from the SW gusting moderate

Tonight: Trace of precip. Winds light- SW. Freezing level 500m

Tomorrow: Up to 40cm of precip, Freezing levels to 1400m. Winds gusting strong from the SW

Snowpack Summary

Strong to extreme S winds may have built reactive slabs well down into the slope in lee terrain. Several weaknesses can be found within the 65-90cm of storm snow above the persistent Dec 27th layer. The mid and lower snowpack have been gaining strength, but a few deep avalanches recently indicate early season weaknesses may be getting overloaded.

Avalanche Summary

The natural cycle is slowing, however the human triggered avalanches remain likely. Numerous avalanches up to size 3.5 in the highway corridor were triggered both naturally and by artillery on Saturday.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.