Avalanche Forecast

Another 0.6" of snow water equivalent and at least 6" of snow fell on Washington Pass on Saturday with moderate to strong westerly winds. Another remotely triggered, large avalanche. We continue to wrap our heads around a tricky and dangerous snowpack in the area. A number of observations point to a layer of buried surface hoar from late December, perhaps above or below a crust as a problematic structure.

On Friday an observer reported a second, even larger avalanche in Portley Bowl, and fresh activity in Spire Gully and Pika Bowl. Check this recent observation for more. Professional Observer Mark Allen was up at Cutthroat Pass and and was able to initiate 18" deep wind slabs on wind loaded test slopes from a distance. He did identify a reactive layer of buried surface hoar down a similar depth in a nearby pit at 6,600ft on an east aspect.

On Thursday skiers observed multiple whumphing collapses starting at 6,200ft on east and south aspects below Portley Bowl. A skier remotely triggered a large slide from about 150ft away. This was roughly 4ft deep and 250ft wide on an east aspect at 7,000ft in the bowl. The slide was observed to have failed on weak snow near a crust. A similar layer was identified 3ft down at 6,700ft on a southeast aspect earlier that day. Another, more shallow avalanche was triggered from a distance as a cornice collapsed on a northeast facing slope into upper Cutthroat drainage. 

Happy New Year! 

The pacific northwest rung in the new year with a winter storm cycle that brought changing conditions to our region. This storm exhibited three characteristics: warm, wet, and windy. Let’s take a look at the end of 2019, the beginning of 2020, and where we can go from here. 

Wrapping up 2019

The last few days of December were generally quiet and cold. The snowpack seemed to enjoy this break in the weather. Lingering unstable snow from the pre-Christmas storms gained strength, persistent weak layers appeared to stabilize, and avalanche hazard decreased in all forecast zones. All in all 2019 ended quiet and uneventful… until the New Year’s Eve weather party showed up …  

Quiet weather led to lower avalanche danger during the last week of 2019. Hogsback, White Pass, WA. Photo: Andy Harrington

Blowing into 2020

A warm, wet, and windy weather system blew into the northwest for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. This brought rapidly changing conditions and increasing avalanche hazard to all areas. 

• Warm: Unfortunately this system brought with it warm air. Freezing levels measured near the coast reached 9000’ on the afternoon of the 31st. Many weather stations recorded above freezing temperatures during the onset of precipitation. 

• Wet: While this system wasn’t as wet as the atmospheric river prior to Christmas, it still produced impressive water numbers in many areas. The bulk of the precipitation seemed to be focused on the Passes and Volcanoes, and water spilled over the crest to places like Washington Pass and Leavenworth. Sadly, when combined with the warm temperatures, this translated to rain well into the near treeline band (or higher) for most areas. The main exception appeared to be in the northeastern cascades, where locations like Washington Pass remained all snow. 

HurRidge

MtBaker

WaPass

Stevens

Leavenworth

SnoqPass

MtRainier

MtHood

Precipitation (in)

1.84

3.39

1.42

4.56

1.06

6.19

5.39

5.41

Snow (in)

-

15

-

12

0

3

10

8

Table 1: Precipitation and storm totals from selected weather stations during the New Year’s Eve Storm. “-” 24hr storm snow not measured. 

• Windy: While the warm and wet were impressive, it’s the winds that may set this storm apart. Most weather stations recorded very strong and extreme winds during the storm. Alpental exceeded 100mph just after midnight to ring in the new year. Any dry snow at high elevations was redistributed by the wind and snow surfaces were transformed. 

Table 2: Wind speeds from New Year’s Eve from selected wind sites. Note the sustained period of winds between 40-60mph.

Eventually, temperatures cooled, the rain turned back to snow, and winds calmed. Many locations picked up additional snow as the storm wound down, but 2020 was already off and rolling with its first major storm.

New Year’s Resolutions

The active weather pattern that started the new year appears to continue. The snowpack and avalanche conditions will continue to change. So, what can your New Year Avalanche Resolutions be? 

1. Read the forecast. This is a great way to monitor conditions even if you aren’t heading into the mountains. 

2. Get out in the snow! Enjoy the wonderful mountains in your backyard. 

3. Submit an observation. Tell the avalanche center what you saw while out in the snow by submitting an observation and sending in a photo. 

Thanks for all of your support in 2019 and here’s to 2020!

-Dallas